- Irish Derby favourite, Auguste Rodin, has just a 2% chance to complete Derby double, historical data has found
- New research from BoyleSports predicts odds-on Aidan O’Brien-trained favourite is likely to finish 2nd at the Curragh
Aidan O’Brien is the master Flat trainer of his generation, but even he might have his work cut out to get Auguste Rodin ready to complete an Epsom/Irish Derby double at the Curragh this coming Saturday.
Auguste Rodin was victorious in the Epsom Derby six weeks ago, where he was sent off at 9/2 and won by half a length from 66/1 outsider King Of Steel.
The three-year-old could become just the fourth double Derby winner since 2003 this weekend, following in the footsteps of Camelot, Australia and Harzand – but Auguste Rodin has just a 2% chance to do that, according to historical data.
After analysing all 190 runners to take part in both the English and Irish Derby over the past 20 years, research by Irish Derby odds has shown that if Auguste Rodin were to become the fourth horse since 2003 to complete the Derby double, he’d be battling a 1.57% chance (3 out of 190 – implied probability of 62/1) to seal the historical triumph.
That said, of the six winners of the Epsom Derby since 2003 that have then gone on to the Curragh to race in the Irish Derby – three have won, two have finished second, and one crossed the line fifth – averaging 2nd place, giving the Aidan O’Brien three-year-old a strong chance of placing.
O’Brien has trained two of those double winners (Camelot and Australia) while Irish trainer Dermot Weld trained Harzand to double Derby delight in 2016.
2023 Irish Derby odds via BoyleSports
Auguste Rodin 1/3f
White Birch 9/2
Sprewell 5/1
Up And Under 10/1
Knight To King 16/1
Proud And Regal 20/1
Adelaide River 33/1
San Antonio 33/1
Peking Opera 40/1
Covent Garden, Salt Bay 66/1
Feature image for illustration only.
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